Force for Good Forecast 2020
Just as we were about to press the “publish” button on our ninth annual sustainability trends report, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic—forcing companies to act on a new and deadly serious threat to their employees, customers, and partners.
The global emergency adds another layer of turmoil on an already roiling sustainability, advocacy, and economic landscape. We’ve retooled this report to offer leaders some thoughts on how they might navigate this public-health crisis in Trend #1. We also offer a range of other insights on how to engage critical stakeholders to reduce risk and help civil society across a range of fronts, including employee activism, well-resourced climate campaigners, and more.
To recap, our annual Force for Good Forecast helps companies see around the corner to minimize risk, head off conflict with employees, investors, and critics, and find opportunities to lead and differentiate from their peers. It’s an extension of our core mission to build trust between unusual allies––like business leaders, activists, and philanthropists––to advance business as a force for good.
On April 7, our team will walk you through these simmering tensions and potential flashpoints in a free webinar––which will kick off our Virtual Future 500 Summit at EarthX. And in the coming months, we’ll dive deeper, with actionable advice for leaders. Follow us on LinkedIn or subscribe to our newsletter so you don’t miss them. In the meantime, here are the trends.
Our 2020 Force for Good Forecast webinar is now available to stream.
Which Side of COVID-19 History Will You Land On?
For companies, the COVID-19 pandemic is a test of resilience and integrity. It’s an opportunity to show authentic leadership and sensitivity in the face of an existential threat. Companies can take actions that leverage their unique culture, skills, and expertise. Hand sanitizer is just a start. Firms will also need to consider how to handle price-gouging on supplies, paid sick leave, supporting front-line workers (even if part-time or hourly), and social distancing policies.
Photo by Kevin Lee via flickr.
Look for some CEOs to take pay cuts to help their employees. Sports stars and team owners will make symbolic donations to help the workers who light up and clean their arenas. Those that have nothing to offer other than sympathy will lose the respect of their stakeholders. Do you own a mall? A hotel? Or have temporary or hourly workers? Taking prompt, serious action, to “flatten the curve”––or slow the virus’ spread––and support workers in a time of great need, will build trust. We kick off our Forecast with some advice for corporate leaders.
To learn more, read Erik Wohlgemuth’s update “Which Side of COVID-19 History Will You Land On?”
Employees and Activists are Joining Forces
Employee activism has been steadily rising since 2018, when Google employees walked out en masse to protest the company’s sexual harassment policy. This past year, staffers at Amazon, Wayfair, and Walmart, to name but three, spoke up and out against their employers. Meanwhile, NGOs are starting to take note, and are looking to team up with disaffected insiders and amplify their concerns.
What’s next? Expect external stakeholders to engage employees––in the tech sector and beyond––on climate change, diversity and inclusion, labor practices, and contract selection. Anything and everything is on the table. Companies that aren’t addressing employee concerns may find their people airing their internal dirty laundry in a public campaign.
Youth are Rising Up and Taking Charge
Photo by Lewis Parsons on Unsplash.
Two years ago, you might have said, “Greta who?” But now, thanks in large part to the young Swede, the youth climate movement has accrued enormous power and has strong potential to disrupt business as usual in 2020. It also has staying power beyond 2020. Why? Because young people are difficult to ignore and have created a highly coordinated, diverse, and unified coalition. Youth activists will apply relentless pressure on political and business leaders––from every side––to take decisive action on climate change.
Taking cues from past mass mobilization movements, they’ll continue to occupy places of political and commercial power. They’ll take a “big-tent” approach, leveraging relationships and building coalitions across race, class, and geographic lines, and notably, making allies in the Environmental Justice movement. Oh, and they’ll also lobby their parents at the nightly dinner table, potentially resulting in more decisive commitments from parent-slash-C-suite types. (Yes, we meant it when we said every side!)
Companies are Calling Customers to Action
We’ve been tracking corporate activism in this report for a long time––and each year, the trend grows bigger and bolder. In 2020, we expect that companies looking to expand their impact and boost brand loyalty won’t simply tell their customers what they stand for. They’ll encourage them to speak up, stand up, and join the cause––and even equip them with the digital tools to do so.
You may have already seen some “calls to action”––normally the wheelhouse of activist organizations––from REI, Keen, Gillette, and others. We anticipate more to come. Watch for major retail brands to bring their customers along for the ride the next time they take a stand on a public issue. In 2020, the key metric is audience participation.
ESG Investing is Moving into Wall Street
In case you missed it: ESG investing is the new norm. Leading investors now compete aggressively to incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into their investment decisions and pull together new offerings. They’re turning to AI and data analytics to measure the materiality of issues like persistent drought, diversity, equity and inclusion, plastic pollution, and human rights. Mainstream investors who once dismissed socially responsible investors as niche players now consider them bellwethers.
We expect shareholder advocates and civil-society activists—and their funders—will further pressure main street investors to up their ESG game in 2020 and beyond. They will leverage their funding power to pressure asset managers––and the companies in which they invest––to accelerate the shift to an ecologically restorative and socially just world, and along the way ensure that they stay in business.
Circular Goods and Services Raise the Bar
Annie Leonard’s “Story of Stuff” warns against the consequences of consumerism and a throw-away culture. More than a decade later, her message is starting to stick.
In 2007, Annie Leonard’s “The Story of Stuff” connected the dots between consumerism and the mounting impacts of climate change, deforestation, and waste. More than a decade later, that message is starting to stick with mainstream consumers. Swelling numbers of shoppers have begun feeling queasy about unchecked consumption and their role in the linear take-make-waste model.
A growing pool of companies and brands are responding by innovating alternative business models––and raising the bar for everyone else. In 2020, prepare for an explosion of circular-economy-compatible goods and services. Advocates––and their waste-conscious consumer followers––will grow impatient with laggards. If major retailers don’t start embracing circular principals in packaging, product design, and beyond, don’t be surprised if the whole system comes under question.
Will Regenerative Agriculture Save Us?
Regenerative agriculture has generated a lot of buzz in the past year––and for good reason. Proponents of the farming and ranching strategy say it has the potential to restore soil health and, in the process, sequester carbon, boost biodiversity, and ultimately yield healthier food. That’s a tall order. Will it deliver? Some stakeholders say that, so far, it’s too narrowly scoped to deliver such sweeping results. And consensus on certification criteria––heck, even a definition of regenerative agriculture––remains elusive.
Nonetheless, General Mills, Danone, and Hormel have all signed on to the concept with sizable commitments. In the coming year, watch for a larger pool of global companies and advocates to align on best practices and back bigger initiatives––while being challenged to keep equity implications front and center. Keep an eye on The Carbon Underground and the Rodale Institute. They’ll be steering the conversation.
To learn more, read Brendon Steele’s update “Will Regenerative Agriculture Save Us From Our Carbon Woes?”
Funders Swell Climate Campaigners’ Coffers
Some of the recent $4 billion in climate funding flowed directly to groups like Extinction Rebellion, which executed highly coordinated climate protests around the world this past year. Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
In 2019 we gave you a heads up that a cool $4 billion in funding for climate action would be coming down the pipes that lead directly to campaigner coffers. The number has since ballooned, notably with an infusion of $10 billion pledged by the richest man in the world toward climate solutions.
Advocates and funders are staring down 2030 climate goals with less than a decade to go. The sense of urgency will kick them into high-gear and likely spur further injections of funding to come. Put simply, philanthropists are throwing open their war chests, and starting this year we expect advocates will start putting the money to work. If you’re a private-sector leader, prepare to engage with your critics on your greenhouse gas emissions, and position yourself for leadership—before this opportunity flips to risk.
Where all that money lands, and how it is used will have major implications for all companies, especially those in carbon-intensive sectors.
To learn more, read Andreea Rodinciuc’s update “Big Bucks Flowing into Climate Action”
Critics are Tracking Your Lobbying
There’s no doubt that companies have been stepping up their game and making strides on sustainability commitments––from renewable energy, to diversity and inclusion, to single-use-plastics. But in 2020, stakeholders will expect companies to get their story straight when it comes to lobbying, association memberships, and overall political transparency.
When it comes to monitoring your political donations and K-Street activities, watchdogs and activists are getting better at connecting the dots. Two-faced companies are vulnerable to boycotts, employee rebellions, and shareholder resolutions. For many, the next task is determining how to get this file out of its silo and aligned with company values––or risk undermining hard-earned credibility with workers, investors, customers, and other stakeholders. You don’t want to get caught saying one thing in your glossy corporate sustainability report while pursuing a starkly different agenda inside the beltway. Leaders will put their lobbying muscle to work for causes core to their company’s purpose, asking lawmakers to step it up on climate action, diversity and inclusion, gun control, and more.
Net-Zero Meets ‘Embedded Oil’
Campaigners and advocates have had a pretty successful run when it comes to curbing our use of fossil fuels. “Keep it in the ground”-style campaigns have stopped or slowed major energy infrastructure, EVs are taking off, and a critical mass of companies are committing to science-based emission reduction targets. Meanwhile, over in the plastic pollution camp, activists are cheering on widespread bans on single-use plastic.
And yet, global demand for plastic is surging, companies are investing billions in massive new petrochemical facilities in Appalachia and along the Gulf Coast, and global greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb. So what’s next?
Watch for these historically disparate environmental movements to meet in the middle. Plastics and climate activists will unite behind new campaigns that highlight the climate impacts of “embedded oil” hidden in everyday products––from plastic toys to polyester apparel, vinyl flooring to thin-film packaging. With a dual focus on consumer brands and their upstream petrochemical partners, these campaigners will leverage growing consumer awareness to “shift the narrative from straws to pipelines.”
That’s it for this year’s trends. Intrigued? Concerned? Bring your burning questions to the authors of the Force for Good Forecast, via our free webinar on April 7 at 10:00 am PDT .
Future 500 is a non-profit consultancy that builds trust between companies, advocates, investors, and philanthropists to advance business as a force for good. Based in San Francisco, we specialize in stakeholder engagement, sustainability strategy, and responsible communication. From stakeholder mapping to materiality assessments, partnership development to activist engagement, target setting to CSR reporting strategy, we empower our partners with the skills and relationships needed to systemically tackle today's most pressing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges.
Want to learn more? Reach out any time.
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